Non-Fungible Tokens and the Adoption S-Curve

2021 has been a great year for Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) and adoption is growing fast. 

We wrote about Bitcoin Adoption in January saying,

Breakthrough technologies often follow an Adoption S-Curve. This Adoption S-Curve reflects the cumulative rate at which a population adopts a new technology or product.

Bitcoin has been around longer than NFTs and is progressing through the Early Majority Phase of Adoption. Here’s the chart we posted earlier this year depicting Bitcoin’s adoption curve.

Bitcoin adoption continues at a rapid pace with strong wallet growth and new use cases relating to commerce like the Lightning Network.

Meanwhile, NFTs are in an earlier stage of adoption. 

Innovators and early adopters are exploring emergent use cases and building a cultural network. Notice where we’ve put the YOU ARE HERE dot on the chart below depicting the NFT adoption curve.

Speed of Adoption

Not only are NFTs earlier along in the adoption curve, but the slope is steeper. 

The NFT Adoption Curve has a steeper slope as the time from the Innovators Phase to Early Adopters Phase is reduced. 

In other words, NFT adoption is occurring faster than Bitcoin adoption. 

Life is not linear. Technology adoption and advancements are accelerating. We can look at consumer electronics adoption curves from the 20th century as an example of this phenomenon. 

Check out the chart below of technology adoption from 1900 to the present. The slopes steepen as we move through time. 

Now check out the tremendous explosion of NFT trading volume in 2021.

We asked early NFT investor Justin Paterno his thoughts regarding NFT adoption. He states, 

There’s nothing crypto people and your in-laws love saying more than ‘we’re early’ but with NFTs it’s actually true. We are just scratching the surface with the most obvious use cases in art and collectibles, but I envision a future where nearly every piece of digital content you consume or engage with is tied to an NFT.